W O R L D W A R O M E T E R

2026
20102033
The Fracture
Populism
Mobilization
Mob. Peak
Hyper Chaos
The Reset

WW2 ANALOG

1936

WW2 ERA (1930-1945)

YearNarrativeMilitary SpendDeaths / 100KCountries in ConflictPop in CombatGDP in Combat
1930The Fracture2.0%0.100%0%
1931The Fracture2.2%9225.8%6.5%
1932The Fracture2.3%10425.7%6.6%
1933Populism2.5%10425.8%6.6%
1934Populism3.0%10426.0%6.5%
1935Populism3.5%14427.9%9.1%
1936Populism4.5%19738.9%27.1%
1937Mobilization6.0%52838.6%27.0%
1938Mobilization7.5%57738.5%27.5%
1939Mobilization Peak9.0%114941.5%35.3%
1940Hyper Chaos16.0%2851544.4%41.3%
1941Hyper Chaos24.0%5712152.5%54.0%
1942Hyper Chaos30.0%9522353.4%55.5%
1943Hyper Chaos33.0%1,0472152.3%53.0%
1944Hyper Chaos34.0%9041950.6%51.0%
1945The Reset28.0%1,4281237.7%38.0%

MODERN ERA (2010-2033)

YearNarrativeMilitary SpendDeaths / 100KCountries in ConflictPop in CombatGDP in CombatWW2 Analog
2010Internal Rot2.5%0.400%0%1930
2011Internal Rot2.4%0.800%0%1930
2012Internal Rot2.4%1.100%0%1930
2013Systemic Stress2.3%1.400%0%1930
2014Systemic Stress2.2%2.022.6%3.1%1931
2015Systemic Stress2.3%1.953.5%4.2%1931
2016Systemic Stress2.2%1.353.5%4.1%1931
2017Systemic Stress2.2%1.353.4%4.0%1931
2018Systemic Stress2.1%1.053.4%3.9%1931
2019Systemic Stress2.1%1.053.5%4.0%1931
2020Pandemic Shock2.3%1.2939.2%5.8%1934
2021The Breakdown2.2%1.472.6%3.5%1931
2022The Breakdown2.2%3.043.2%4.8%1931
2023Multipolarity2.3%2.053.9%5.2%1931
2024Multipolarity2.5%2.9108.1%7.5%1932
2025Multipolarity2.6%2.91329.1%12.4%1935
2026*Ignition3.2%4.11729.1%18.5%1936
2027*War Declared3.8%8.22235%25%1939
2028*Hyper Chaos I6.8%20.53742%35%1940
2029*Hyper Chaos II10.2%41.05248%45%1941
2030*Total War Peak12.8%68.55752%50%1942
2031*Total War Peak14.1%75.45251%48%1943
2032*Grinding End14.5%64.84749%46%1944
2033*The Reset11.9%102.43036%35%1945

* 2026 data YTD as of March 18, 2026. 2027-2033 are projections.

DEFINITIONS

Military Spend: Global military expenditure as a percentage of world GDP.

Deaths / 100K: Annual deaths per 100,000 world population attributed to interstate conflict.

Countries in Conflict: Count of countries actively involved in interstate combat.

Pop in Combat: Percentage of world population living in countries engaged in interstate warfare.

GDP in Combat: Percentage of world GDP produced by countries engaged in interstate warfare.

WW2 Analog: The WW2 year whose metrics most closely match the modern year.